United States – USDA ups 2012/13 sugar production estimate

The USDA has raised its estimate for 2012/13 sugar production to 9.015 mln short tons, raw value, from 8.980 mln in April because of better crops in both Florida and Texas. At the same time it has cut its forecast for imports (from countries other than Mexico) to 2.903 mln tons from 3.036 mln the month before. This more than compensated for the increased imports from Mexico (1.674 mln from 1.647 mln). As a result total supplies in 2012/13 are now estimated at 13.9 mln tons against 14.0 mln in the April estimate. However, this did not prevent the closely watched stock-to-use ratio from rising further to 18.5% from 18% in April. This is mainly the result of a weak domestic market where deliveries are expected to fall to 11.5 mln tons from 11.7 mln in April.

For 2013/14 USDA expects production to fall to 8.6 mln tons from 9.0 mln. However, higher imports are expected to raise the total supply to almost 14.2 mln tons which would be far above the total use forecast of almost 12 mln tons. As a result the stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to climb further to 18.8%.

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