Monsoon Rainfall Exceeding Forecast to Boost India Crops

Monsoon rainfall in India, the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar, was above normal for a second year, boosting prospects of bigger harvests and increased exports.

Rainfall totaled 89.27 centimeters (35.1 inches) between June 1 and Sept. 25, compared with the 50-year average of 86.4 centimeters, data from the India Meteorological Department showed. The average rains in the June-September period between 1951 and 2000 were 89 centimeters, according to the forecaster.

Increased supply of rice, corn, sugar and oilseeds may accelerate a decline in India’s food-price inflation, the highest among the biggest emerging markets, and cap global food costs monitored by the United Nations that climbed 26 percent in the past year.

“There is some cushion as far as supplies are concerned because of the rains,” Anand James, chief analyst at brokerage Geojit Comtrade Ltd., said by phone from Kochi. “We will be in surplus in some commodities but exports will depend on global prices.”

Commodities fell to their lowest in almost 10 months on speculation Europe’s debt crisis will worsen, curbing demand for food and raw-materials. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index ended last week down 21 percent from the almost three-year high in April, the common definition of a bear market. The last time the index fell that much was in 2008 when the global economy sank into its worst slump since World War II.

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