MME Study reveals grow as the supply of bagasse
The expansion of the supply of sugarcane bagasse will grow 25% until 2025 as a result of higher ethanol production, projected at 47,3 billion liters in 2023, up from 27,3 billion liters planned for this year in the country.
The numbers are part of the study Perspectives of the Brazilian Electric Sector, presented in 20/05 by Altino Ventura Filho, Secretary of Energy Planning and Development of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) during the 4th Course about the Brazilian Electricity Sector for the Judiciary, held by Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization (CCEE), in Brasilia.
The greater supply of bagasse designed by the study also will expand the availability of electricity in the country for 2023, the year used as a parameter in the Ten Year Plan of IBGE.
This year, for example, the MME estimates a population of 217 million people, compared to 202 million in 2013, an annual high of 0,7%, or gain of 1,5 million people per year.
Despite the projected greater supply of electricity cogenerated by bagasse (the study excludes the possibilities of the use of sugarcane straw), the presence of renewable in the energy mix will lose to the fossil in 2023.
+This year, according to the study, renewable sources will represent 85,6% of the required 933,8 terawatt hours (TWh), compared to 11,7% of energy from fossil sources. In 2013, renewable accounted 87,8% of the total offered, while the fossils were in 7,8%.
The MME study does not speculate on market trends, but the question of the cost of production explains the situation. While a megawatt-hour (MWh) produced by hydro costs average R$ 120, the same MWh is average R$150 in the wind power and R$180 by biomass.
Biomass, according to the survey, will expand its presence among renewable sources. In 2013, it represented 6,6% of total 610,4 TWh and is expected to jump to 7,6% of projected supply of 933,8 TWh in 2023.
Already installed capacity of electricity generation from biomass was in 11,5 gigawatts (GW) in 2013, and according to the MME, will go to 18,1 GW in 2023.
With this projected capacity, biomass will lose space in the Brazilian energy matrix. In 2013, it represented 8,9% of total electricity capacity in the country, and will drop to 8,6% in 2023.
Who else will grow, in the projection of the study, is the wind power, which went from 2,2 GW in 2013 and will jump to 22,6 GW in 2023, with an expected 10,7% share of the energy cake.